BLIND LEADING THE BLIND

I'm always amused at the reasoning of some political analysts who against all evidence to the contrary put their own spin on the political realities of the day. And this has nothing to do with whether I support one party or other, but simple facts that play out in the public domain on a daily basis.

Take for instance the Independent Liberal Party. Prior to the Local Government Elections, Mr. Jack Warner won a resounding victory over the United National Congress in the Chaguanas West Constituency By-Election. The U.N.C. did not minimize the threat they faced from the fact that traditionally whenever there are three major parties in the Election race, the People's National Movement has always emerged victorious. Interestingly though the intelligentsia tried to convince those who would listen that the ILP would win that election and the St Joseph Constituency By-Election. Results will show that the PNM won both the Local Government Elections and the St. Joseph Constituency's By-Election.

We now have a scenario where all three political parties are gearing up for Executive Elections and jostling for positions has already begun. To me it's impossible at this time to determine what would be the electorate's interest in any of the three parties until we see the composition of the Executives so I prefer to await these developments.

It would be foolhardy I think to write off the UNC, as their Election machinery have pulled off the most unlikely victories in the past, and I've seen with my own eyes that machinery at work in Mayaro some years ago. It would be equally foolhardy to write off the ILP although most would agree that the baggage they carry is a bit much notwithstanding their claims of innocent until proven guilty. In politics, perception is everything. The PNM is not an unknown entity and contrary to some analysts' opinion is destined to ride the wave of their three consecutive  successes( at the T.H.A., Local Government and St.Joseph) unless some unforeseen event causes them to self-destruct, so even attempting to write them off as a failed party does not reflect good on the intellect of those who make bold to claim they are dying or dead.

If I were a betting man and the ILP fields candidates in all electoral districts I would place the odds at this time on the results on the 2015 Elections as follows: PNM vs UNC 3/1, with the ILP as an unknown factor.The perception of corruption follows all three political entities so it may very well come down to how many non-aligned voters each party will be able to attract. The strength of the ILP though would be the determining factor in any future elections.